Election Day 2080

Welcome to Election Day 2080.   

Here in the Pacific Northwest, temperatures the past few weeks have been more representative of September than November.  Yesterday, Seattle temperatures soared to 66F, a daily record that is 13F above normal.  A plot of the observed and normal (high and low) temperatures at Seattle tells the story (see below).  Minimum temperatures have been roughly 7F above normal the last two weeks, maximum temperatures around 4F warmer than typical.  Today (Tuesday) temperatures should surge to the upper 60s.  Just amazing.

The warm temperatures are not limited to Washington State as illustrated by the differences of temperature from normal over the past two weeks.   The Northwest is warm, but the Rockies and Great Plains are crazy warm.

Climate models suggest that the temperature conditions that we are experiencing the last few weeks in the Northwest are what will be typical in 2080 if we don't get a handle on global warming.  That is why many scientists (such as myself) are strong supporters of I-732, the carbon tax swap initiative in Washington State.   And why many of us are in disbelief that some "environmental organizations"  such as the national Sierra Club and Seattle's Climate Solutions are not supporting it.   They, the Koch Brothers, and some of the worst polluters in our State are aligned in an unholy alliance to do nothing about global warming.

Let's be careful

One thing must be made clear.  Most of the the recent warming over the Northwest is NOT due to global warming resulting from greenhouse gas emissions.

How can I be so sure about this?   Because the warmth is associated not with  thegeneral warming expected from greenhouse gas effects, but rather due to a very anomalous atmospheric circulations pattern.   Let me show you.

Here is the upper level (500 hPa) height anomalies (difference from normal) for the past week.   A VERY amplified pattern, with a high amplitude trough (purple/blue) over the NE Pacific and a huge ridge (high heights or pressure) over the much of the U.S.   This pattern is very conducive for warming over the U.S.  

There is no reason to expect global warming from greenhouse gases produces such a pattern;  global climate models do not project this.  In fact, they suggest the opposite: deamplification of the amplitude of upper level waves in the  North American midlatitudes.

Global warming from increasing greenhouse gases has certainly made some minor contribution to our above recent normal temperatures (perhaps 1F), but the overwhelming majority is natural.  But by the end of the century everything will be different, with the greenhouse gas contributions increasing to similar magnitudes if mankind does not get CO2 emissions under control.

Landslide Worries over the Northwest

As Oso taught us two years ago, landslides are serious business here in the Northwest.    Smaller landslides are a frequent occurrence in our area, with a combination of steep slopes, heavy rain, and unconsolidated glacial soils.  Often, they cut Sounder rail service between Seattle and Everett.

Landslides are generally associated with a periods of sustained above-normal precipitation that leads to saturated soils.  With saturation in place, surface-based slides then occur after a short period (6-24 hr) of particularly intense precipitation.

The regional landscape is now primed for landslides after an extraordinary period of above normal precipitation, with many locations having experienced their wettest October on record.

The percentage of average precipitation for the last 30 days (see below) is amazing, with most of the region about 200% of normal and about half greater than 300%  of normal.

 What does this mean in terms of amount of precipitation?  Here is the National Weather Service estimate for the same period. Large areas, mainly in the Cascades, Olympics, and coastal mountains, received over 20 inches.  Even the lowlands got soaked with more the 8 inches.  My backyard is a wet bog, something that normally doesn't happen until December.

A number of minor landslides have already occurred from this period ofheavy rain, such as the recent slide on Marine View Drive in Tacoma (State Highway 509)

Washington's State's Department of Natural Resources has a real-time landslide warning map that combines antecedent precipitation, forecast precipitation, and slope/soil information to provide landslide warnings (see below).  The website for this map is found here.

OK, what you really want to know is whether there is an upcoming landslide threat.   The latest UW WRF precipitation forecast (for the total precipitation over the next 72 hr) suggests a HUGE threat for southern Vancouver Island, with some locations getting over 10 inches.  The Olympics will get a piece of this.   The precipitation is associated with a strong atmospheric river from deep in the

tropics (see image below of vertical total of water vapor).  You don't have to go to the tropics, the tropics is coming to us!

And with tropical air comes warmth, as shown by this forecast of temperature at 5000 ft for 4 PM Monday.  Red and orange is warm.

 The result will be much warmer than normal temperatures over Washington, with Seattle getting to 64F on Tuesday.  This is November and it will feel like September or May,  

And yes, don't forget to vote.  If we don't start reducing carbon emissions, such weather (and precipitation) will be normal by the end of the century.  That is why I-732 is so important.

Oil Companies and Big Polluters are Desperately Trying to Stop I-732 (the Carbon Tax Swap Initiative)

Big Oil and Big Carbon Polluters are very worried.

They obviously believe that Washington State's I-732 (the revenue-neutral carbon tax initiative) may pass and they are spending massive amounts of money on advertising to stop it.

For example, during the past week, the infamous Koch Brothers, far right oil barons, donated $ 50,000 to the No on I 732 campaign. Kaiser Aluminum threw in another $300,000. Puget Sound Energy, which heavily uses coal, threw in $125,000. And the oil company lobbyists (American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers) contributed $250,000.

Clearly, the oil companies believe that if I-732 passes, the demand for their product will decline.  

Is it not ironic that the Sierra Club, Seattle's Climate Solutions, the Washington Environmental Council, and the Alliance for Jobs and Clean Energy are aligned with the most reactionary, anti-environmental players in the nation (e.g., the Koch brothers and the Petroleum Manufacturer groups).  These left -eaning "climate justice" enthusiasts are both totally naive and working against their own self-interests and those of their members.  

Some Washington environment and "climate justice" groups are in league with  climate denier "devils"

The irony of this situation is stunning.  While some "climate justice" groups and their fellow-travelers claim that I-732 will not be effective in reducing carbon emissions, the folks who produce and massively use carbon-based fuels are so convinced it WILL be effective that they are desperately throwing money at the No on I-732 campaign.

But the fascination of the I-732 saga does not end there.  A lazy media has been complicit in the No on I732 campaign, just as it was complicit in the rise of Donald Trump.   For example, the biggest objection to I 732 (and one repeated by the Seattle Times and others) is simply not true:  that somehow the revenue-neutral I-732 will suck money out of the state budget, hurting schools, the environment, and orphans.   The truth, outlined by the independent Sightline Foundation and shown in detail on the I-732 website, is that I-732 is extraordinarily well-designed is as close to neutrality as humanly possible.  And in any case, the state legislature can do what it always does--make adjustments to ensure income meets requirements of the APPROVED STATE BUDGET.  But the lazy media hasn't independently run the numbers to show that the No on 732 campaign is just blowing smoke.

But something amazing has happened during the past several weeks.  An amazing bipartisan consortium of interests and groups have come together to support I-732:

• A coalition of environmental groups ranging from WA Audubon to the WA Green Party.
• Major political leaders such as Slade Gorton, Rob McKenna, Brady Walkinshaw, Jim McDermott, and Ron Sims.  
• Virtually the entire climate research community of the Pacific Northwest and national climate leaders such as Jim Hansen.
• National environment activities like Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert Kennedy, Jr.
• An army of millennials and young people determined that the world they will experience in 50 years will be livable.

All of these folks realize that the time for talk and self interest is over.  The time to act on global warming is now. To put it another way, a moderate, pragmatic, non-ideological center is congealing to support I-732 and to push for real steps for finally dealing with climate change, first in WA state and then the nation.

Will the Koch Brothers, oil producers, and some self-interested, naive "climate justice" activists stop the nation's best hope for progress in dealing with climate change?   Will they stop I-732's potentially huge contribution to making our State's tax system less regressive?

On Tuesday we will know.   And if you haven't voted yet, please consider carefully on which side you want to be on.  A future in which our state and national finally deals firmly with global warming and pushes away the current grid-lock and status quo.  Can moderates and reasonable folks bring rational action to play to deal with the threat of increasing greenhouse gases?

And then there is the deeper question.  Can moderates make policy and govern our country?  The extremes are locked into positions and reject compromise and pragmatic/moderate approaches. Are there enough folks in the middle to move the state and nation forward?  Or will the extremes dominate the national discourse, leading to deadline on critically important issues like the environment and the nation's economy?

Heat Spikes and Heavy Rain in the Pacific Northwest

Yesterday, the temperatures rose into the mid-sixties at many locations of western Washington and the upper 60s in the portions of eastern WA (see map). Seattle's high of 65F was more appropriate for late September than dark, wet November!

As shown by a plot of temperature at Seattle Tacoma Airport, our temperatures (particularly the minimum temperatures) have been above normal for several weeks, with some impressive maximum temperature spikes to well above normal.  Today (Friday) will bring another temperature spike.

Perhaps surprisingly, this warm period has also been accompanied by much wetter than normal weather, with record-breaking precipitation over the State, something I have talked about extensively in previous blogs.

It turns out that there is a direct connection between the warmth and wetness we have experienced, something I will demonstrate in this blog.  Both are caused by the same basic flow configuration.

What is that flow configuration?  Here is the anomaly from normal conditions (climatology) for upper level (500hPa) heights (like pressure) for the past 7 days.  Purple and blue indicate lower than normal heights, yellow and red, above normal.   Note that there is a large negative anomaly (low heights or troughing) off our coast, with higher than normal heights over most of the rest of the country.   Since air moves counterclockwise around low centers in the midlatitudes, this flow configuration is associated with enhanced southerly/southwesterfly flow along the West Coast.  Such a southerly flow brings subtropical moisture and warmth into our region.

To illustrate this, here are the heights (solid lines), winds, and temperatures (shading) at 850 hPa (about 5000 ft) for 11 AM today (Friday).   You can see the deep low (trough) over the northeastern Pacific and higher heights (ridging) inland.  The winds are from the south/southwest over us.  As evident from the shading, the warmth (red colors) is being brought northward into the Pacific Northwest by this flow pattern.

Now, if the low is a bit farther offshore (like today or yesterday), we get the warmth but not the rain.  In addition, easterly flow aloft gives us downslope flow and a further surge of temperatures.   If the low is displaced a bit to the east, we get into the stronger, moisturer southwesterly flow (often an atmospheric river), which brings clouds and precipitation, often heavy.  The satellite picture at 11 AM Friday shows how close to the edge we are, with some higher clouds extending over our region...but the real action offshore.

The story of our fall has been this offshore trough and inland ridge, with our weather gyrating between warm and very wet.   Tomorrow (Saturday) we will be back in the wet!  Enjoy.

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I-732 is perhaps the most important ballot measure in decades, please support it.

 I-732, the revenue-neutral carbon tax swap, will help reduce Washington State's greenhouse gas emissions, make our  tax system less regressive, and potentially serve as a potent bipartisan model for the rest of the nation.  More information here.   

Some opponents of I-732 are spreading false information, suggesting that I-732 is not revenue neutral.   This claim can be easily disproven as discussed here.  

I strongly support I-732 as do many UW climate scientists.  We have an unprecedented opportunity to lead the nation in reducing carbon emissions and to establish a model that could spread around the country.

If you are undecided about I-732, read this before you vote.

Initiative I-732, the revenue neutral carbon tax swap, is perhaps the most important Washington ballot measure of the decade.

It offers a powerful tool for taking on global warming by reducing carbon emissions in Washington State and could well serve as a model for the rest of the nation.

It offers the chance of a lifetime to improve Washington's highly regressive tax structure, thus aiding low-income families.

The national media has been headlining the importance of I-732 in the battle to stop global warming (see below)

So if you are a Washington State resident, let me give you some reasons to vote for I-732:

1.   Leading climate scientists support I-732.    These are the folks that understand the threat better than anyone.   Example include over 50 University of Washington climate scientists and James Hansen, perhaps the most well known climate scientists in the nation.

2.  Leading economists support I-732.  These are individuals with a deep knowledge of the most effective economic tools for reducing CO2 emissions.  A sample of several dozen economists on all sides of the political spectrum can be found here.

3.  Political leaders on both sides of the political aisle support I-732.   Such as Slade Gorton,  Jim McDermott, Rob McKenna, Mike McGinn,  Gerry Pollett, Bill Finkbeiner, Brady Walkinshaw, Ron Sims, Steve Litzow, and many more.

4.  Major environmental and green organizations support I-732.  Such as the WA Audubon Society, Cascadia Climate Action, Green Party of Seattle, Green Party of SW Washington, Citizens Climate Lobby, Olympic Climate Action, New Progressive Alliance, Climate Action Ministry, and many more.

5.  Washington has the most regressive tax base in the country.  I-732 will radically improve this by reducing the sales tax a full one-percent and providing a tax credit for up to 400,000 low-income families in the state.

6.  Political organizations around the State support I-732.  Examples include:  2nd Legislative District Democrats, 5th Legislative District Democrats, 10th Legislative District, 18th Legislstive District Democrats, 20th Legislative District Democrats, 26th Legislative District Democrats, 32nd Legislative District Democrats, 36th Legislative District Democrats, 38th Legislative District Democrats, 40th Legislative District Democrats, 42nd Legislative District Democrats... and many more.

7.  The arguments against I-732 are false and easily disproved.  For example, some have claimed that I-732 is not revenue neutral and would pull money from state coffers.  Absolutely false.  The state estimate was based on basic errors, as documented by the Sightline Institute and I-732 website.  Others claim it will reduce jobs (just the opposite is the case).

8. The opposition to I-732 to include coal-burning utilities and petroleum lobbyists, who care more about their profits than global warming, and special interest groups that want carbon-tax money directed to their members.

9.  A similar revenue-neutral carbon tax has been a great success in British Columbia. 

10.  The opposition has no plan for moving forward.  

This is such an important vote and one with international significance.  For I-732 to lose would be a tragedy for the State and the nation.  I strong support I-732, I hope you will too.

Need more information, go to the Yes on I-732 website.

Extraordinary Climate Record Broken at Spokane: The Greatest Monthly Precipitation of ALL TIME

There are records and then there are RECORDS.

Yesterday (Monday),  Spokane Airport broke one that left this normally dispassionate meteorologist in a state of amazement:  the  greatest monthly precipitation total for a station that goes back over 120 years (since 1889 to be exact). 

Not the greatest monthly total for October, something true of Seattle and a number of Northwest locations.   But of any month, including the normally wetter months of December and January.

Folks, this is a major record, as noted by the National Weather Service Spokane announcement yesterday (see below).   As of 7:23 AM Monday Spokane had received 6.21 inches, smashing the old record (5.85 inches) set in 1897.

Not all records are created equal

Unlike people, some records are more impressive than others.   Daily records at individual stations get broken all the time.   For example, the highest temperature observed on July 14th at Seattle Tacoma Airport.  A lot of chances to break records at many individual locations.   To give you a taste of this, here are the number of US daily records broken during the past year.  TENS OF THOUSANDS OF THEM.  That is why you should yawn when that media starts hyperventilating about daily records.

These are for daily records for specific days.    A rarer record is the daily record for a month (say the highest daily temperature for any day in a month).  Generally only a few hundred of these in each category (see below)

All time daily records (again for daily observations but for any day of the year) are even rarer:

Only a handful, in comparison.

But these are daily records.  Records for monthly totals are harder to break since there are far less of them and monthly totals average a lot of atmospheric variability.  And to break the monthly record for a station of such a long record  and in October, a month that climatologically is in the driest third of the typical year (see below), is truly amazing.

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Initiative 732 News

Dr. James Hansen, one of the most well-known climate scientists in the U.S., has made a strong statement in favor of 732.  He believe I-732 could be a game changer for the nation and the world.

Some folks have been writing letters to the editor of the Seattle Times and elsewhere, criticizing I-732 with pseudo-scientific arguments that are simply not true.  Well known UW climate and carbon cycle scientists (John Crusius, Richard Gammon, and Steve Emerson), correct the record here.

Yesterday, a group of environmental "heroes" went to Puget Sound Energy (PSE) to protest the utility's heavy use of coal coupled with it large financial contributions to stopping I-732.

Heavy set, black-clothed PSE security forces tried to chase them off of public sidewalks and swiped several of their signs.   Black is appropriate--the color of coal and the dark side of the the Force.  I bet Puget Sound Energy's customers will be delighted to learn that they are paying for anti-environmental advertisements.

Monthly Precipitation Records Have Fallen

Yesterday, Seattle-Tacoma Airport's October rainfall finally exceeded the October monthly record of 8.96 inches, and it is well over 9 inches at this point.  A number of other western Washington locations (such as Olympia and Hoquiam) have exceeded their October records, as well as many locations in eastern Washington (see below)

Really, the eastern Washington wetness is quite exceptional.   The US Drought Monitor no longer has any part of Washington in drought.

To get an idea of the amazing amount of water we have received, here is a plot of the percentage of normal precipitation observed during the past month. Most of Washington has had above 200% of normal with much of eastern WA with more than 400% of normal.   Same thing is true of northern CA and SW Oregon.

With all this precipitation, local rivers are running high, and many very high (>90 percentile of flows).

And folks, the rain is not over.  Here is the prediction 72 hr cumulative precipitation ending 5 PM Wednesday.  Vancouver Island is going to get hammered with over 10 inches along its SW slopes, while the Cascades will be moistened by 1-5 inches (which almost seems like a sprinkle compared to what they have gotten).

What is really exceptional is the amount of precipitation that has hit and will hit northern California.  Fire risk is way down and the reservoirs have started to refill early.   I suspect this winter will be a "drought breaker" for the Golden State.  

So why has it been so wet?  Well, the proximate cause is a persistent area of low pressure over the northeast Pacific, as shown by the the following  upper level (500 hPa) anomaly (difference from normal) map for the past month.  The purple/dark blue shows a strong negative anomaly (low pressure) just off the NW coast.  This feature has brought clouds and precipitation.  Why is it there?  I can't provide an explanation.

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Join the "climate heroes" protest at Puget Sound Energy (PSE) at 11:30 AM Monday in Bellevue (information here)

Puget Sound Energy has joined with other major carbon polluters (like the petroleum industry) to contribute massive amounts of funding to stop I-732, the carbon tax swap initiative (which I support).   We suspected this would happen, once it became clear that I-732 might pass.   The funds are being used for a massive misinformation campaign (No on 732).  So join those who want to see real progress made in fighting against global warming produced by increasing levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.  Tell PSE either in person or via email/telephone that their working against effective measures to deal with climate change is not in society's or their long-term best interest.