The Slowly Fading (But Near Normal) Snowpack

As skiers can tell you, the region's snowpack is slowly fading under the onslaught of warmer than normal temperatures.  Here is the latest snowpack status based on the SNOTEL observations.  A range from 89 to 128% of normal for the water content of the snow.  Unfortunately, with warmer temperatures and rain on the snow, coupled with inevitable settling, much of the snowpack has degraded into the familiar Cascade concrete, in contract to the wonderful powder earlier in the season.

But we are a lot better off than last year.  Here are maps of the water content of our snowpack last year and this year on February 25th.  Big difference, with more snow this year.  And this year there has been WAY more total precipitation (including a lot of warm rain) that has filled our reservoirs.

Let's look at few at Stampede Pass (3850 ft) in the central WA Cascades and the far higher (5130 ft) Paradise Ranger Station near Mt. Rainier.  A similar story at both for cumulative snowpack and precipitation.  A huge surge in snowpack in December followed by a slow rise afterward.  The observed amounts (blue lines) tracking near normal (red).  Total precipitation (black line) well above normal (gray line).  You notice that snowpack normally peaks in early April.  This may not be true this year due to the expected warmer than normal El Nino conditions.

The next 72h will bring precipitation (today Friday and on Sunday), but conditions will be warm, so expect snow mainly at higher elevations (particularly about 5000 ft).  Here are the predicted totals.  The higher terrain in the British Columbia mountains do best.

_____________________________

Announcements

Northwest Weather Workshop

The big local weather gathering is less than a month away (March 4-5, Seattle).  If you are interested in attending, the agenda and registration information can be found here.  This gathering is the place to be if you want to learn more about local weather research and operations.  You MUST register to go.

Weather Forecasting:  The History and Technology

I will be giving a talk on March 16th at 7:30 PM in Kane Hall on the UW campus on the history, science, and technology of weather forecasting as a fundraiser for KPLU.  General admission tickets will be $ 100 and VIP tickets that include dinner are $1000.  If you are interested in purchasing tickets, you can sign up here.