Fireworks, Wildfires, and Smoke

You have to ask yourself, are personal fireworks worth the risk?    One way to view the risk are the statistics for human-caused versus natural  (lightning-induced) wildfires.  For the entire western U.S., here are the statistics of wildfire initiation dates for an extended period from the following paper:

The biggest wildfire initiation date is July 4.   Huge peak for the human-caused fires and the top peak overall on that date.

Here is a similar plot for only the Northwest and coastal California (Mediterranean).  Natural on left, human-caused on the right.    July 4th is evident.

natural                    human-caused

Because of the anomalous warmth, the Northwest is tinder-dry--much drier than on a normal fourth of July.  So the potential for initiation of wildfires by fireworks is much higher this year.  And roof fires in urban areas are also of concern.   

Is the potential for fire initiation worth the bangs/colors of fireworks?  I am surprised that state and local officials have not initiated a state-wide ban on personal fireworks.  They should have.   So now it is up to the population to put them away for a year.    It is simply not worth the risk.

And then there are the air quality issues.   Air quality degrades substantially after firework displays, which include not only small particles (PM2.5) but toxic heavy metals used for coloring.

Here is an example of the concentration of small particles around July 4th last year at Seattle and Tacoma from data available on the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency website..  Huge last on July 4th and early on July 5th.

And, of course, any wildfires initiated by fireworks will inject huge numbers of particles in the air.

Many of you are asking whether and when this will end.   One of the most powerful tools available is the North American ensemble (many forecasts) called NAEFS.   Here are the NAEFS forecasts for temperature, precipitation, wind and clouds for the next two weeks. for Seattle  The models are suggesting a change in regime around July 10th, with more normal temperatures, more clouds, and stronger winds.

Not cool or wet, but closer to normal.

Remember during a NORMAL year we are now entering the warmest, sunniest, driest time of the year.   That is something you should expect.

Finally, let me note that there has been a lack of lightning the past few days, caused by the same ridge that is producing the warmth.  That LESSENS the numbers of new fires, particularly in remote areas that are hard to get at.  With below-normal lightning this might not be a major/record wildfire season. I wish the media would consider this in their stories.