Sunday Windstorm

Weather prediction models are pretty much all onboard in predicting the approach of a small, but potent, low pressure center on Sunday afternoon and evening.   Let me show you the latest  WRF model forecasts.  These maps present the predicted pressures (solid lines), winds (little barbs), and temperature.

By 8 AM Sunday the low is off the central/northern Oregon Coast.  It is not a large storm.

 It makes landfall near 5 PM, with a central pressure of roughly 980 hPa.  The southern WA coast would be getting very strong winds if that pressure pattern verifies.

 By 11 PM Sunday, the low is over SW British Columbia, with windy conditions over western WA.

I know, you want to know about wind speeds. Here are the predicted SUSTAINED winds at 5 PM.  50 kts on the southern WA coast and 25-35 kt over central Puget Sound.

 Two hours later, 35 kt sustained over Northwest Washington and 25-35 kt around Seattle.  Gusts would be stronger

If this system strengthens more than predicted or moves a bit more inland, things could be worst over Puget Sound.  Rapidly developing, small systems such as this one are very difficult forecasting problems...a slight displacement makes ALL the difference in max winds.

Bottom line:  The south/central coast will get hit hard, with gusts reaching 50-70 mph.  For Puget Sound, it will probably be similar to the storm of this week, but it could be worse.   Make sure you have batteries!

Announcement: Public Talk: Weather Forecasting: From Superstition to Supercomputers

I will be giving a talk on March 16th at 7:30 PM in Kane Hall on the UW campus on the history, science, and technology of weather forecasting as a fundraiser for KPLU. I will give you an insider's view of the amazing story of of weather forecasting's evolution from folk wisdom to a quantitative science using supercomputers. General admission tickets are $25.00, with higher priced reserved seating and VIP tickets (including dinner) available. If you are interested in purchasing tickets, you can sign up here