TV Meteorologist Jeff Renner Retires from KING TV

One of the most distinguished members of the Northwest meteorological establishment, Jeff Renner, retired from KING TV on Friday, and his on-air presence will be missed.  Those of us in the Puget Sound weather community have come to depend on Jeff as one of our most visible and effective members, and this blog will tell some stories that may not be generally known about Jeff, including his substantial service to the University of Washington and my department.

Jeff came to KING TV as a general reporter in 1977, but became the weather anchor and science lead in 1980.   When St. Helens exploded in May 1980, his in-depth coverage of the event made him well-known throughout the region.   I started at the UW in late 1981 and quickly got to know Jeff at local weather gatherings.  

He was not satisfied being a TV weathercaster, without a weather background.  Jeff was determined to become a real meteorologist and to secure a degree in atmospheric sciences.  And he was willing to take years of math and physics courses that were the first step before entering a degree program, such as the one we offer at the UW.  

I was really impressed.   And during the next few years, he was good to his word.  He fulfilled all the responsibilities of his KING TV job while taking years of technical prerequisites before entering the UW atmospheric sciences program, which he completed successfully.  I enjoyed having Jeff in the senior forecasting class, where he was one the best students.

Jeff developed a reputation as someone who not only had an excellent delivery (and a voice more appropriate for an Olympian god) but a dedication to bring science and education into his message, frequently evincing the knowledge he had gained at the UW as well as an excellent intuition about the weather.   At regional meetings, like the Northwest Weather Conference, you could always be sure Jeff would be in attendance taking notes.

But then a setback occurred in his career.  A new news director at KING decided that a flashy female presence would be beneficial to ratings and Jeff was let go.   Many of us in the weather community protested to KING management (his replacement had no degree in meteorology was making serious technical errors), but it was the unhappiness of the viewers and their demand for Jeff's return that led to his triumphal reinstatement a year later.

During his year off, Jeff applied his formidable communications skills to enter a new sideline:  forensic meteorological consulting.  Many don't know that meteorologists are often hired to do research and testify in court cases, something I have done as well.  There is no better way to find out how weather is influencing people's lives in a serious way.   Jeff rapidly become well known in this endeavor:  he and I have even on the opposite sides for some lawsuits.

Jeff is an uber outdoorsman:   a frequent hiker, sailor, and pilot, among others.  He combined several of these interests with writing to produce a series of popular books on weather for outdoors enthusiasts.

 And he didn't stop there.   Over the years, Jeff created a number of excellent educational 1-hr specials on meteorological topics.

During the last several years, Jeff understood the importance of the developing technology of high-resolution weather prediction and arranged to secure a real-time feed of the UW's super high-resolution WRF output for KING TV , with this information translated into compelling graphical products known as FutureCast (see below).

Finally, Jeff has been a huge friend to the UW. During the years, a number of atmospheric sciences students interested in TV weather have interned at KING 5, gaining invaluable experiment that led to successful careers for several (such as the redoubtable Shannon O'Donnell and MJ McDermott). When the department had special evening lectures for the community, Jeff often was the MC, skillfully guiding the evening, providing wonderful intros for the speakers, and gentling asking for community support at the end.

Jeff retired this week, along with a number of other veterans of KING TV, a sign of downscaling of stations shrinking as TV newscasts become less popular as web access to information gains ascendance.  

But I suspect we have not heard the last from Jeff.  He has never been better as a communicator and his creative abilities are undiminished.   Improving models and internet capabilities do not mean that people don't require an experienced, knowledgeable voice to help them interpret and act upon the huge amount of environmental information that is flooding them.   It is more important than ever and I expect Jeff has some ideas for the future.

The Big Meltdown Followed By A Cool Down

The record breaking temperatures of the past few days and warmer than normal temperatures of this month have resulted in substantial melt of the formidable snowpack we started with on April 1.  And the rivers are responding.

To illustrate the snowmelt, here is the plot of snow water content at Stampede Pass at 4000 ft on the eastern side of the WA Cascades (normal snowpack is the light blue).  We were near normal around April 1, but have lost about 20% since then.

This massive melt of water is causing a number of rivers on the eastern slope of the Cascades  to approach flood stage, with predicted floods on some.  To illustrate, here are the hydrographs, showing the observed and predicted river levels and discharge for the Okanogan, Stehekin, and Naches rivers--all are predicted to flood during the next few days.

Spring flooding from snowmelt is not unusual, but it was generally absent last year because the snowpack was so poor.

During the next day, we are about to transition to a far cooler, wetter pattern as the ridge of high pressure weakens and moves westward.  The upper flow pattern changes substantially.  Here is the 500 hPa (18,000 ft) upper level map for 5 PM today (Wednesday). Big ridge centered over the Rockies, with a weak disturbance (trough) over Oregon--which has brought some thunderstorms to western Oregon and SW Washington.

 72 hours from now (5 PM Saturday), the ridge has weakened and westerly/southwesterly flow has invaded the West Coast.

As a result, over the next 72 h precipitation will return:  light over WA, but substantial to the south over Oregon and CA (see below).  Such precipitation is unusual for CA this late in the season and very welcome.

Want to be impressed?

The forecast total precipitation over the next two weeks by the GFS model is quite wet for the Northwest (see below), with some areas getting 4 inches or more.  Temperatures will return to normal.  I think folks are ready for some normal weather again.

The Warmest April Day in Seattle History

We broke major records today.

The warmest April day on record at Seattle (89F).  The previous record was 85F.

The warmest April day in record at Olympia (88F).  Previous record was 87F.

The warmest April day on record at Bellingham (83F).  Previous record was 78F.

We tied the record number of days hitting 80F or more at Seattle (two).  We will beat that record tomorrow.  It was also the warmest day since last August.

A number of local observing sites got to 90F or above.  I mean a LOT of locations--here is the map:

Not impressed yet?   The temperature at 850 hPa (around 5000 ft) at Quillayute, on the WA coast, was an amazing 16.2C.  (see plot, with light red line showing the daily record, and blue dot showing today's temperature).

It was the second warmest temperature at that level ever observed during the first four months of the year.  The warmest?  Earlier this month, April 7th, with 16.6C.

It was so warm that we started getting weird mirage effects because of superheated air over cold water.  Here is a picture sent to me by Tony Nahra, showing a marvelous superior mirage (lofting of objects on the opposite shore). The only other alternative explanation is a new Amazon complex.  I like the mirage better.

Why so warm?  Big ridge over the western U.S. aloft.

At 850 hPa (about 5000 ft), there was southerly flow with enough of an easterly component to give some offshore flow that reduced the marine influence.

And weak pressure variations at the surface (so no cool northerlies like on April 7th).  The meteorological planets were aligned for heat.

Super Contrail Day

Today was not only 20F warmer than normal, but was accompanied by one of the most amazing contrail displays I have seen in long time.  Here is the NASA MODIS visible imagery for early this (Sunday) afternoon for off the U.S. West Coast.  You see all the thin lines?

Those are contrails produced by high-flying jet aircraft.

A blow-up of the section off the Oregon/WA border is below:

Why was this such a spectacular contrail day?  Because vast areas in the upper troposphere was at or near saturation (100% relative humidity).

Today there was a ridge of high pressure over the West Coast, as shown by the upper level map at 300 hPa (around 30,000 ft) at 11 AM.  \

This map shows that there was southwesterly flow over the eastern Pacific that was associated with warm advection (approach of warmer air) and lifting, which led to saturation.   To prove this, here is a 6-h forecast for 11 AM on Sunday showing relative humidity at 300 hPa (against around 30,000 ft).  The air is saturated (100% relative humidity) in the region of the contrails.

That is why a vast area was covered with patchy high ice crystal clouds (mainly cirrostratus).  The moisture from the jet engine combustion (plus the particles emitted from the burning fuel) helped thicken the cirrostratus, producing contrails.    Contrails are FAR less evident in dry air.

We can prove the upper troposphere was near saturation by viewing the vertical sounding (using a radiosonde, a balloon-lofted instrument package) this morning at Quillayate on the Washington coast (see below).  The red is temperature, the blue is dew point, and when they approach each other the air is close to saturation.   From 550 hPa to 200 hPa (roughly 17,000 ft to 40,000 ft) the air was saturated or close to it.    A little extra moisture ensures saturation and cloudiness.

Some folks believe that the contrails shown above are chemtrails, toxic chemicals emitted by a secret U.S. government program.  But such ideas have no basis in truth and the fact contrails are more frequent when the air is close to saturation is strong proof of the benign origin of contrails.

Interestingly, contrails WARM the planet.  They reflect some solar radiation to space, but their impact on the infrared radiation balance of the planet is larger (they intercept infrared radiation coming up from below, where it is warmer, and emit infrared radiation at a relatively cool temperature).

ANOTHER Heat Wave. Will this Summer be a Repeat of the Last One?

It looks like quite a few of you will experience 80F again during the next few days.

Another major heat event is coming, with temperatures well into the 60s on Saturday, mid to upper 70s on Sunday, and even low 80s on Monday.    As you know, I have a lot of respect for the forecasts from weather.com and here are their numbers:

Considering that the average max temperature this time of the year is around 58F, we are talking about record territory for some days, with highs about 20-25F above normal.

The origin of this warmth?  You can guess it.  A strong ridge of high pressure over the West Coast (see the upper level map, 500 hPa level, at 2 PM Sunday).

I can't tell you how many people have told me they are worried about a repeat of last year:   very warm spring, water issues, low snowpack, wildfires galore, terrifying blobs, and all the other unpleasantness of last spring and summer.  They ask: are we seeing a permanent shift of our climate due to global warming?

What does the data and best science tell us?  This summer should be nothing like the last in terms of those unpleasant impacts.

The first thing to consider is while last winter brought normal precipitation, this year we had the wettest winter in Northwest history.  That makes a difference.
Reservoirs are full, groundwater is in good shape, rivers are running full.

Let's have some fun and do some more detailed comparisons.

The previous winter we had near normal or slightly below normal precipitation over the region.  This winter?  Here is the total from October 1, 2015 to April 14, 2016 precipitation anomaly (difference from normal).  This year, most of the region is above normal, with western Oregon and Washington much above normal.

Last year the snowpack was the worst in history.  This year it is normal, which means our full reservoirs will be topped off with lots of snow melt.   (see current snowpack figure for Washington below).

So, with wet conditions this winter and plenty of snow, river levels will be good into the summer.  Here is the 120 day stream fow forecast for eastern WA from the NWS River Forecast Center (percent of average).  We are talking about mid-August.  The Yakima River will be way above normal and the lowest rivers are near normal (about 80%).

The Yakima River authorities are forecasting plenty of water for farmers:  BOTH senior and junior rights holders.

What about heat?   We can start by looking at the water temperatures offshore.  Below are the weekly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from normal for last year and this year in April.   MUCH cooler till year.  Forget the blob.

A contributor to the warm water has been the VERY strong El Nino of the last year (and the moderate one the year before).  However, El Nino is weakening rapidly right now, so much so that the National Weather Service has released a La Nina alert for next winter.    A weakening El Nino should lead to cooling, both over the water and over land.  However, it will take some time (months) for its impacts to start to fade.

What about the persistent high pressure of last winter and spring?   Aren't we seeing some big ridges the last few weeks?   We have.  But the ridging and warmth have not been as steady and persistent as last  year....that is why we have gotten precipitation quite frequently.

Here is the last NMME seasonal  (June, July, August) forecasts provided by NOAA, based on an ensemble of seasonal climate models.

Precipitation is near normal.

Temperatures are moderately (.5 to 1C) above normal.  Last summer was 2-5C above normal.

Bottom line repeated:  we are in much better shape this summer.  Last summer was a fluke, resulting mainly from natural variability.  Global warming may have contributed a small about (perhaps .5C) to the warming, but it can not explain the key feature that caused all the trouble:   the persistent high pressure ridging.

So enjoy some very pleasant weather this weekend with no guilt.
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Announcement:  Jazz and Astronaut Fundraiser for KPLU on May 14th!

How often do you get to meet and hear from an astronaut at a wonderful location (Museum of Flight, Seattle), with great jazz right before?    I am going!

For more information: http://www.brownpapertickets.com/event/2534871

Rainshadow Sunset

Last night, even when it was raining in Seattle, there was the most amazing sunset.   Here is the view from the space needle cam looking towards the northwest, which did not do the view justice.

Here is one taken by A. J. Thompson of Greenwood.

Last night a front had moved through and their was southwesterly flow aloft.  Air sinking on the northeast side of the Olympics (the lee side in this situation) caused warming and drying, resulting in a hole of the clouds and thus the entry of the setting sun.

The visible satellite image last evening at 5 PM hinted at the rain/cloud shadow underneath.

 But the highly accurate short-term (2 hr) forecast from the HRRR model for 7 PM showed a dry zone at around 5000 ft from the sinking (light green colors)

With a hole (white) in the predicted low clouds.

Good time to plant around the garden.  Moderate temperatures and the ground is still moist.

Radio Station KUOW Has Gone too Far

It is not often that a major public entity does something so inappropriate and contrary to the public interest.

As I will demonstrate below, Seattle's KUOW is using questionable and disingenuous tactics to undermine its rival public radio station, KPLU.   And its use of pledge funds is deceptive at best.

Listeners need to act to ensure that KPLU, by far the region's best public radio station, survives.

What is the latest KUOW misstep?    It is creating a jazz station to undermine the jazz programming of KPLU and patently fibbed about it.

The back story.

Last year KUOW/UW and  Pacific Lutheran University (PLU) had secret negotiations about the purchase of KPLU.  PLU was desperate for cash and mistakenly thought that a secret deal would make things move fast.

When the sale of KPLU to KUOW was announced in November, KPLU listeners were livid.   Their beloved station would be gone, with most of the staff fired. KUOW listeners were angry that somehow 4 million dollars ended in a slush fund that KUOW management could use to buy a competitor.   But KUOW wanted the sale badly:  they would get KPLU's superior transmitters and have a virtual monopoly on public radio money in the region.

 Kicking someone who is down does not reflect our values.  KPLU is working hard to get on its feet.

The sale was clearly not in the public interest, and with a huge public outcry, UW and PLU decided to give KPLU six months  (June 30th) to raise the seven million dollars required by PLU.  I was particularly impressed with the role of UW  President Ana Mari Cauce, who made it clear that an immediate sale was inconsistent with basic UW values.  The community needed to have a chance.

KUOW reluctantly backed off, since the UW was the license holder and was providing some of the funding.

But KUOW was not giving up...and they kept information about an upcoming sale as a banner on top of every one of their web pages.  Check out a snapshot tonight from the KUOW information page.  The sale doesn't look very delayed does it?

KPLU  started a fund drive in January and so far it has been very successful, with KPLU securing donations of over 3.7 million.  Clearly, they are on track to secure the needed funds by the deadline.

KUOW was clearly worried.  And desperate to derail KPLU's momentum, they announced yesterday that they (KUOW) would immediately start competing with KPLU's bread and butter--jazz and blues programming.  KPLU not only has award winning local news and NPR programming, but specializes in jazz/blues through its main radio station (88.5) and streaming through the Jazz24 HD channel (which is very popular and has around 100,000 listeners).  To undermine this very popular KPLU jazz offering, KUOW is starting a jazz streaming outlet

 called PlanetJazz starting on April 18th.

Why are they doing this?  The KUOW claim is that they wanted to get ready in case KPLU could not secure the funding.   But that is complete nonsense.  Why? First, if KPLU was not able to find the money, KUOW would immediately inherit a fully functioning and popular HD channel Jazz24.  Second, it is clear that collecting money at the current rate, KPLU will be able to buy its independence.

So what is KUOW putting a competing jazz outline online?  There can be only one reason:  to destroy the momentum of the KPLU donation drive.

KUOW listeners should be irate about the total waste of their pledge dollars and donations.   To launch this new jazz service, KUOW has retained an expensive consultant and has remade its streaming services.   The costs of such an effort, based on my conversations with an industry insider, is at least $50,000 to $100,000.   But it is worse than that.   KUOW is using millions of dollars of pledge money for the takeover...money that was given in good faith by listeners who were told their contributions were needed to maintain local programming.

And is wasn't true.  

The  pledge money ended up in a slush fund/reserve account that can used to take over other stations and to hire consultants to create a competing jazz outlet.   Even more upsetting is that KUOW is not leveling with its listeners about it.   On their web page they deny they are doing it:

This is the kind of language that would make a lawyer proud.  They don't FUNDRAISE for the reserve.  What they do is to take the surpluses each year and put THAT into the reserve.  Plus, whatever interest/income they get from the reserve, which started as contributions.  You really have to watch those KUOW folks.  They could always become tax lawyers.

Finally, UW and PLU Presidents, Ana Mari Cauce and Thomas Krice, should be upset with KUOW's flaunting the clear intent of the universities to give KPLU a chance to survive under community funding.  It makes no sense to give KPLU six months to raise funds and then try to sabotage it with wasteful, competing programming.

What should you do?

If you are a KPLU listener or someone wishing to support KPLU, please pledge as soon as you can

If you are a KUOW listener and pledge to KUOW, please move your support to KPLU.   KUOW has vast reserves and does not need your money.