Dead Blob

Several people have asked me about the "BLOB"--the area of very warm water over the NE Pacific Ocean that has plagued our region for roughly two years.

The short answer:  the  BLOB is DEAD.  Sorry for putting it bluntly, but it is better that way.

Here is the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly (the difference from normal).  Red is considerably warmer than normal.  Lots of red offshore of the West Coast (the BLOB).  Also much warmer than normal SSTs along the equator over the Pacific (that is associated with El Nino).

 Compare that with the SST anomaly yesterday.  Major cooling over the NE Pacific.  The BLOB is gone.   But El Nino is still going strong.

Why is the BLOB dead?   Because the mother of the BLOB--an area of persistent high pressure over the NE Pacific--is gone.  The high pressure was associated with light winds, which did not produce the normal mixing in the upper layers of the ocean.   Plenty of mixing this year, which brings up cooler water from below.

So be sad for the BLOB, but be happy for our local ski areas.

Mountains of Snow

For Northwest snow lovers, this is turning out to be a good year, with FAR more snow than during the snow-drought winter of  2014-2015.  Let's begin by showing the snow depths of December 15 this year and last (see below).   Hugely more snow this year in most areas, particularly over the Olympics and central/southern Cascades.

The Northwest Avalanche Center provides a summary of the snow at ski areas and other locations twice a month (see below).  The per cent of normal at these areas range from 60% at Stampede Pass to 119% at Mount Baker.  Overall, a very typical year.  If  you want to see something amazing, check out the snow totals for last year (last column).   Hardly anything!  Last year Baker had 6 inches if snow, this year, 80 inches.

Just to see what is on the ground, here is a recent picture at Whistler

 And two at Mount Baker

But ready to get really excited?  Here is the snow forecast for the next 72 hours.  Eastern WA and Oregon get covered, up to several feet in the mountains.

Next 72 hours?  Several more feet in the Cascades and lots of snow over the Sierra Nevada.

Why so much snow you ask?  Because we are stuck in a very favorable, La Nina type pattern with high pressure over the subtropic Pacific and cool, northwesterly flow over our region (see upper level map).  In this situation, we have a series of disturbances moving into our region from the Gulf of Alaska, with relatively low freezing levels.

We will go into the holiday season with loads of snow for skiing and recreation.

Santa is worried about too much snow.

Senator Cantwell and the Other Radar Gap

You really have to admire Senator Maria Cantwell.   I can't think of another legislator who is so active in dealing with the key environmental challenges in our region.

Five years ago, she played a critical role in securing a radar for the Washington coast:  the Langley Hill radar near Hoquiam that gave local meteorologists a view of incoming weather system from off the ocean and heavy precipitation over the coastal mountains (see example below).   Forecasts have often been improved by this critical resource.

But there is another important weather radar gap in our region:  along the eastern slopes of the Cascades of Washington and Oregon (see map).    Over Washington, the nearest radars are at Spokane, Pendleton, Camano Is, and Portland....too far away to get crucial, low-level (below 10,000 ft coverage) east of the Cascade crest.   Eastern Oregon is a complete disaster,  as is the southern Oregon coast.

Radar coverage is particularly valuable along the eastern slopes of the Cascades since wildfires can spotted with weather radar and heavy convective showers can cause flash floods in that area.  It would also be of substantial value to eastern-slope agricultural interests.

So it was with great pleasure that I learned this week that Senator Cantwell not only understands the importance of eastern-slope weather radars, but has added language to a bill that calls on the National Weather Service to complete a study of the impacts and costs of such radars.  (Information here)  This bill has now passed the Commerce Committee and has bipartisan support.   For those who remember the process in securing the Langley Hill coastal radar, the first step was to do such a study.

Senator Cantwell is also one of the more perceptive legislators regarding the large wildfires we have had the last few years east of the Cascade crest.  While some elected officials have been blaming the fires on global warming, Senator Cantwell has honed in on the real issue:  the mismanagement of our forests during the past half century, including suppression of natural fires and a lack of thinning.   After holding extensive hearings and the preparation of a white paper, Senator Cantwell is working on legislation that will return better management of our dryland forests.

Sustainable eastern WA forests have relatively low density encouraged by frequent fires.

While some politicians are paddling around oil platforms as kayaktivists, others like Senator Cantwell are doing the research and putting together planning to make our natural environment and our infrastructure more robust and resilient.  You can imagine who I prefer.
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And now something a little lighter.   Well known local TV meteorologist, M. J. McDermott, has written a delightful holiday story called Frankenstein Meets Santa.  Information here.   May sound corny, but this book is a real fun read.  Even has a meteorologist as part of the plot, which wins a a lot of points in my eyes.

One Last Storm and Snow Fest In the Mountains

Even native Northwesterners are getting a bit storm weary, but there is one more storm to deal with before the weather cools and calms down.  A sea level pressure forecast (solid lines are isobars, lines of constant pressure) show a deep (975 hPa central pressure) low center off northern Vancouver Island at 4 PM.  Temperature is shown by the colored shading.  Not super warm.  That is good for snow.

This afternoon you can expect very strong winds over NW Washington and along the coast, with gusts to 40-60 mph (see the forecast of sustained winds at 1 PM from the UW WRF model).

Wind gusts at Smith Island over the eastern part of the Strait of Juan de Fuca are already (11 AM) reaching 50 knots....and they are still increasing (see below)!   These are southeasterly winds, resulting from the interaction of strong southerly winds with the Olympics.

That low center will move eastward across southern BC, weakening as it does so, but still producing a large difference in pressure (pressure gradient) over western WA and the coastal waters.   The forecast below at 4 AM illustrates this.

Winds could gust to 40-50 mph around Seattle, particularly near the water.    You might want to go to sleep with a flashlight handy.

The freezing level is relatively low right now (about 3000 ft) and with plenty of precipitation from this system, there will be substantial snow today, certainly above 3500 ft.  Then the temperatures cool behind the low (northwesterly flow follows) and we will move into a cool, showery regime with moderate snow in the mountains.    

Here is the  forecast 72-hr snow total for the next three days.   We are talking of several feet of snow in the Cascades and Olympics.   Very good for skiers.   This period will guarantee skiing over the holiday break.  And really good in increasing the snowpack for water resources next year.

The forecast models have a crazy strong storm forecast for later next week...but this is too far out to have much confidence.  Stay tuned.

Exceptional Picture of the "Drunken Storm"

As the "Drunken Storm" waddles towards us, the afternoon satellite imagery was stunning.  Here is the MODIS visible satellite image earlier this afternoon.  My attempt to mark it up for explanation is found in the second image below.

This is a complex system.  The primary low center is offshore, within the swirl of clouds (identified by "A").    A weaker circulation is found closer to shore at "B."
There is a VERY large area of very unstable air south of the low centers (part of which is indicated by the bluish oval).   Cold air showers have been moving in on us today, explaining the intense, but brief rain.  I have rarely seen such a large area of instability southeast of a low center.

To illustrate how unstable this air is, here is the IR satellite image at 4 PM, with the lightning strikes of the previous hour sensed by the UW WWLLN lightning network.  Lightning is associated with the more vigorous and deeper convection. Note how the lightning is associated with the "popcorn-looking" instability clouds.

The Langley Hill National Weather Service radar near Hoquiam shows the offshore showers, and will illuminate the approaching storm tomorrow. 

You have to admit, weather graphics are beautiful in their own right...nature's art.

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KPLU Takeover Information

More media coverage of the KPLU takeover by the UW is found here.   The PLU administration has been playing unethical games, preventing the PLU regents from seeing the highly critical KPLU Advisory Committee report.   The  PLU administration has also been preventing critical comments from being placed on their social media sites.   Unbelievable from the leadership of a religious-based college.

The UW and KUOW continue to spread false information that the only way to save KPLU is with a UW takeover.

Good information on the UW buyout of KPLU is found here.

And the KPLU Acquisition Facebook page is here.

Powerful "Drunken" Storm to Hit the Northwest, Followed by Another Big Blow

Today I will coin a new meteorological term:  drunken storm.

Drunken Storm:  a storm that circles around and has minimal forward motion, in contrast to normal storms that move rapidly to the east or northeast.

Tomorrow, an usually powerful storm for our region will careen around in our offshore water for an extended period before making landfall.  A very strong storm and unusual behavior.

Her is an infrared satellite image of the inebriated storm at 9:45 PM Wednesday:  it looks kind of funny, don't you think?  Not very symmetric or well formed.

 So let's view the strange behavior, using the latest UW WRF model forecasts.

At 1 AM Thursday morning, the powerful storm (969 mb!) is due west of WA State.  Very large pressure gradients over the ocean...which means big winds.

 By 1 PM Thursday, the low had moved slowly towards Vancouver Island.

1 AM Friday--it is still out there!  Now just SE of Vancouver Is.  Staggering.

 1 PM Friday, the low had weakened a bit and had drifted towards the SW Washington coast.

 FINALLY, by 1 AM Saturday the storm makes landfall and ends up over eastern Washington.

 But mamma mia, another major storm....and not a drunken one...is heading right towards us on Saturday afternoon around 1 PM.

 That storm moves north of Puget Sound on Sunday AM, resulting in strong pressure gradient over western WA and undoubtedly powerful winds if this forecast is accurate.

 

And did I mention the big waves and flooding along the Washington coast?  I should have.

Take a look at the predicted significant wave heights (the average of the 1/3 highest waves) on Thursday at 7 AM.  Wow...some are 12 meters high! (around 40 ft)

 By 4 PM they reach the coast, although ONLY about 10 meters high.

 These waves, plus enhanced water levels due to low pressure over the region, should produce some coastal flooding.

And there will be plenty of precipitation during the next 72 hours, with most substantial torrents over Oregon and northern CA (see 72h predicted total below), where 5-10 inches may fall in the mountains. Lots of moisture will be spun off from the drunken storm.

And there is a lot more I don't have time to talk about, such as lots of sun in the mountains, cooler temperatures, and even the potential for lowland snow.   The atmosphere is not done with us yet.

Why are PLU and UW Administrators Working to End KPLU? What can you do about it?

An unnecessary regional tragedy is now occurring.

Pacific Lutheran University (PLU) is planning on selling KPLU, a hugely successful public radio station valued by 430,000 listeners, to the University of Washington's KUOW.  KPLU will be terminated, its award-winning news operation ended, its special programs lost (e.g., birdnote), and its unique blend of jazz/blues and extraordinary hosts let go.  KUOW only promises to have some kind of jazz outlet.

A healthy, growing, and loved public radio station is being destroyed.  A desperately needed local news organization will be ended.  The reputations of both PLU and UW are being damaged.

And as we will see below, this disaster is absolutely unnecessary.  It is the scheme of some isolated college administrators that appear to have little concern for the interests of public radio listeners in our region.  Administrators that have have acted with great secrecy and have been willing to misinform the public about the necessity of the sale.  Administrators that care so little for KPLU listeners that they refuse to give KPLU a chance to raise funds to purchase its independence.

The deal:  UW/KUOW will pay PLU seven million dollars,  plus 1 million in free underwriting (advertising).   PLU also gets the new NEEB building, which was built with donations from KPLU listeners.  The UW gets all the other assets of KPLU, including its frequencies, transmitters, and repeaters.

So why is this happening?  Whose idea was it?

We know the answer to this.   PLU approached UW earlier this year, offered up KPLU for cash.   Two people at PLU are responsible for this:  President Thomas Krise and VP for Communications Donna Gibbs.

 PLU President Krise

VP Donna Gibbs

Both Krise and Gibbs are recent arrivals (during the last two years), with little understanding of the local community or the value of KPLU.  Krise has revealed a contemptuous attitude to those that question his decision.   A sample:

 I can tell that many people’s passions are very strong and may overwhelm their reason. --Thomas Krise in his statement found here.

President Krise claims the sale was for the good of local public radio and that is wasn't because of PLU's financial state.   That public radio is shrinking as is the value of the radio station.  Which conflicts with the facts.  Killing a healthy, growing, and financially robust local radio station is not making a contribution to public radio, and the truth is that PLU, not KPLU, is in serious financial trouble, with its bonds-rating status downgraded and enrollment dropping seriously.  Donna Gibbs is pushing the same line, suggesting that public radio is declining each year, as is the value of the KPLU asset.   Simply nonsense.  KPLU was growing stronger and larger each year. Their pledge drives were wildly successful.  She is either misinformed or not being straight about the facts.

And what about the UW?   High UW administrators tell me that the purchase was not their idea and that KPLU would have failed without KUOW intervention.   Surely, with a modest bit of checking, they would have realized this was not true.

But I can understand why KUOW wanted the sale.  KUOW IS a weakening public radio station.  Its listenership is dropping.   The major overhaul in programming of recent years (like dumping valued local shows like Weekday and replacing with repetitive syndicated content) has alienated listeners and contributors.  Its signal was inadequate in many areas.  Its pledge drives were excessively long.   For a modest investment (using millions of redirected pledges from KUOW listeners), KUOW can terminate is superior competition, secure ALL the regional public radio pledge money, and gain KPLU's superior transmitters.

 No wonder KUOW's leadership loves this deal.  And why key UW administrators, particularly UW VP Norm Arkans, are pushing for it.  Norm is the UW's point person for KUOW and is a strong supporter of the current (and failing) programming approach.

Secrecy

So PLU, probably because of its failing finances, was desperate to sell KPLU and UW/KUOW saw an opportunity to secure a virtual monopoly on public radio in western Washington.   Together, PLU/UW plotted secretly to make a deal.  So secret that when the issue was taken up at the UW Board of Regents, the agenda items was mislabeled "KUOW LICENSE".   A direct violation of the Washington State Open Meetings Law (not the first time).   So secret that the UW Faculty Senate was not told about the potential sale.  So secret that KPLU staff were not informed until hours before the announcement.  And certainly the public, who had a profound interest in KPLU was not told.  For a public university like the UW, the owner of a profoundly important public asset (PLU of KPLU) to make such a huge decision without public input or process suggests a disdain for those they should be serving.  The public had no voice in the future of local Public Radio.

The Other Option:  An Independent KPLU

The two universities, in a rush to make a secret deal, avoided a superior option for listeners and the community:  giving KPLU a chance to raise money to buy its freedom from PLU.     PLU administrators knew about this option before the secret deal was announced, but choose not to consider it.

The independent KPLU option is a straightforward one:  give KPLU a few months to raise the necessary cash to pay PLU the 7 million dollars, as well as roughly an extra million dollars for initial set-up costs.  For a station with nearly a half-million listeners, such fund raising is quite possible and there is great reason to expect it could be successful in weeks or months.   KPLU would end up stronger than ever, without the drag of all its responsibilities to PLU (like helping faculty with audio visual issues).  PLU would get its cash and listeners could retain a valued radio station.  I can't tell you how many folks told me they were ready to make major donations for an independent KPLU.

Huge Public Reaction Against the Sale

The public against this sale. KPLU has been inundated by nearly 3000 supportive emails.  Social media sites for KUOW and PLU are full of critical comments.  Thousands have signed online petitions for the sale to be stopped.  PLU administrators are being hit by huge numbers of emails.  Op-eds against the sale are found in many local newspapers.  The public wants to save this public radio station.  But university administrators are not listening.

The PR Disaster

One of the great ironies of this public relations (PR) disaster is that it is being pushed by the PLU Marketing and Communications VP Donna Gibbs.    Instead of allowing KPLU to secure its independence in a gracious way, PLU is destroying the station and alienating thousands of listeners and PLU alumni, some of which are threatening to cut off their contributions to PLU.  And this won't help PLU student recruitment either.    The UW brand is also sullied, with the rich/powerful UW coming off as a corporate raider unconcerned that is destroying a radio stationed loved by hundreds of thousands of local residents.    Alienating hundreds of thousands of folks is not good PR.  KPLU gave PLU a voice and exposure far above its "weight."   Was it a good decision to throw this way? And to do so in a very public way?

Why does the public have no say in public radio?

Time for the Community to Intervene

It is time for the public of public radio to intervene.  That means many of you who read this blog.  UW and PLU administrations are rapidly putting these deal together and plan on signing a contract by Dec. 18th.   This needs to be stopped.

Please write and email the PLU and UW key administrators, as well as the PLU and UW regents, telling them to hold off and give KPLU a chance to secure financing.  (contact info below)

Contact your local media outlets, write letters and op-eds, and leave comments on PLU/UW/KUOW facebook pages.

Let KUOW know that if they have so much cash for take-overs, you will not be pledging anymore.

 But whatever you do, do it quickly.  Time is of the essence.

And if you want more information, go to savekplu.org

We can save KPLU, but it will take major pressure on the decision makers.

Contact Lists

PLU President:
Thomas Krise (krisetw@plu.edu)
PLU Communications VP:
Donna Gibbs (gibbsdl@plu.edu)

PLU Board of Regents:
Ed Grogan (ed@summitplans.com)
Brad Tilden (brad.tilden@alaskaair.com)
Tony Hicks (tony.hicks@hospira.com)
Mack Hogans (hmackmack@msn.com)
Matt Iseri (MattIseri@TokuSaku.com)
Richard Jaech (jaechre@plu.edu)
Lisa Kittilsby (lisak@gravelpits.com)
Lisa Korsmo (lkorsmo@cloverpark.k12.wa.us)
Mark Miller (mark.miller@plumcreek.com)
Jonette Blakney (Pastor.ShepherdoftheHills@gmail.com)
Susan Caulkins (scaulkins@dpearson.com)
Andrew Finstuen (andrewfinstuen@boisestate.edu)
Darren Hamby (dhamby@fhlbsea.com)   -  Invalid address???
Jeffrey Rippey (jeff@jrippey.com)
Laura Rothenberger (lrothenb@uw.edu)
Jan Ruud (jruud@smlutheran.org)
Laurie Soine (lsoine@u.washington.edu)
Charleen Tachibana (charleen.tachibana@vmmc.org)
Martin Wells (msmmwells@aol.com)
Osamu Matsutani (osamu.matsutani@hcahealthcare.com)


UW Board of Regents:
Bill Ayer (bill.ayer@alaskaair.com)   - Invalid Address???
Kristianne Gates Blake (kristib@ptera.net)
Jeremy Jaech (j_jaech@hotmail.com)
Vanessa Kritzer (vkritzer@uw.edu)
Patrick Shanahan (patrick.m.shanahan@boeing.com)
Herb Simon (simonjohnson@simonjohnsonllc.com)
Orin Smith (osmith30@comcast.net)
Rogelio Riojas (rogelioriojas@seamarchc.org)
Joanne Harrell (jharrell@microsoft.com)


KUOW Board of Directors:
Chris Higashi (chris.higashi@spl.org)
Colleen Echohawk (colleen@chiefseattleclub.org)
Dennis Kenny (dennis@illuminage.com)
Indranil Ghosh (Indranil.Ghosh@premera.com)
Jon Schorr (schorr@carneylaw.com)
Judith Endejan (jendejan@gsblaw.com)
Nelson Dong (dong.nelson@dorsey.com)
Shauna Causey (shauna@everymove.com)
Steve Hill (steve.hill@pinchot.edu)
Susan Queary (squeary@badermartin.com)
Vivian Phillips (VivianP@STGPresents.org)
Wier Harman (wier@townhallseattle.org)